The withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, paving the way for an aggressive Taliban to overrun the Afghan troops and impose its rule brings about relative instability in the region, but more ominously for India, the new Taliban government spells severe security implications given the Pakistan inspired terror suspects are occupying key positions in the new government.

The US troops withdrawal after two decades, as ordered by President Joe Biden appears a move to protect American soldiers and interests by getting out of a costly war but for India the potential for trouble on the Afghan front has only just begun.

Consider this: One of the most important persons driving the new government will be Sirajuddin Haqqani, head of the Haqqani Network, the most powerful of all Taliban factions that are the closest to Pakistani ISI, and responsible for several attacks against Indian interests in Afghanistan, including a bomb blast at the Indian embassy killing 58 people. He has been named as the interior minister (home minister).

In what is a severe cause of concern for India and the rest of the world is that Haqqani Network, controlling and managing security in Kabul is the most violent of the terrorist groups and Sirajuddin is a specially designated global terrorist with a bounty on his head. As many as 14 members of the 33-member Taliban government are on United Nations Security Council (UNSC) terrorism blacklist, including acting PM Mullah Mohammad Hasan Akhund and his two deputies.

An American state department statement on the composition of the new Afghan government said, “We also are concerned by the affiliations and track records of some of the individuals.” Incidentally, a top American Congressman Jim Banks described the new Afghan regime as "This is a government of terrorists, by the terrorists, and for the terrorists.”

Global leaders converge for a conclave

It is not for nothing that the world has been on an overdrive ever since the dramatic collapse of the government to Taliban – and key discussions are taking place on the responses to the fast-developing Afghanistan story.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin and leaders of China, Brazil, and South Africa for the virtual BRICS summit on Thursday. High on the mind space of the global leaders for the present are Afghanistan developments. Indian viewpoint on the issue is to be forcefully made in presentations at the summit.

In a week on next Thursday, plans are afoot for intensive regional discussions at the SCO summit where Prime Minister Modi, Russian President Putin, Chinese President Xi, Pakistan PM Imran Khan, and leaders of Central Asian countries are likely to be present. An Afghan contact group meeting is also likely to take place on the side-lines.

Now, these key virtual meetings are preceded by quiet visits of two important persons -- CIA Chief Bill Burns and Russian NSA Nikolay Patrushev – visiting Delhi for crucial talks on the Afghanistan issue. The Modi government told Russia in a high-level inter-government dialogue that role of Pakistani ISI’s links with India-focused terror groups in Afghanistan and that Pakistan had “special responsibility” to ensure Afghanistan soil is not used to spread terrorism and carry out anti-India activities.

For us in India, the influence of Pakistan on Afghanistan comes out clearly in the composition of the new government in Kabul, which is a greater cause for concern. Incidentally, the new government was formed within three days of Pakistani ISI chief air dashing to Kabul on a sudden and unannounced visit. What is more concerning are the links of the Taliban with terrorist outfits like Al Qaeda and ISK are too well known.

Pakistan-Taliban-China axis

For India, already engaged in hostilities at LAC with China and LOC with Pakistan, any further trouble on its borders, and an unfriendly government in Kabul will only make things more difficult. India needs to be wary of the TalibanPakistan-China axis as indicated by the crucial meeting of foreign ministers of neighbouring countries of Afghanistan convened by Pakistan. At the meeting, attended by foreign ministers of Pakistan, China, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Russia was absent at this meeting.

At the meeting, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi promised aid worth $ 31 million to the Taliban government and hoped that the government will end the anarchy and restore order. China will work with countries in the region to help Afghanistan to rebuild its economy and society, as well as to fight terror groups and illegal drug trade.

And now, Pakistan-inspired Kashmir militant groups have begun seeking the support of the Taliban in Jammu and Kashmir. However, for the present, the Taliban spokesperson has distanced Kabul from the Kashmir issue.

Taliban spokesperson firmly declared that Kashmir was a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan and as such the issue ought to be sorted out through negotiations between the two countries, ruling out Kabul’s involvement in any manner. But analysts are sure, the fall of Kabul will raise the spectre of terrorism once again in India.

India needs to have a strategic and effective strategy in view of moves of the Pakistan controlled factions of Taliban and their allies like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HuM).

The fall of Kabul to the Taliban is particularly pleasing for Pakistan, which now has a friendly government, unlike the previous regime that was more friendly with India, which had also invested heavily in projects in that country. In fact, Pakistan had helped the Taliban capture Kabul by pushing men and materials into Afghanistan, experts studying the situation have assessed.

Readying for any eventuality

Like the Modi government is doing India must exert diplomatic efforts for coordinated action to have some influence and or control over Taliban government – to ensure that its territory must not be used for terrorism. Incidentally, even Russia, Iran, and China are worried on this count and concerted action could help us keep the danger away.

But on the ground, India is better prepared today than ever before. Though Pakistan keeps trying to meddle in Kashmir, the Pakistan-based groups have failed in the face of strategic and tactical steps of the Indian government. Acts of violence have come down drastically over the years. But the threat posed by the Afghanistan developments is very real.

For the record, the Taliban claims itself to be a new version of itself, but it never leaves any doubt in the minds of the people what it really is – as shown by incidents playing out in international television media that is unleashed in Kabul and elsewhere in Afghanistan. What an essentially a fundamentalist and rigid regime that frowns on modernity is doing, is but only a trailer of what is to come in the near and distant future.

With global terror suspects in key positions in the new Afghanistan government, India gets ready to watch out for a potentially troublesome PakistanTaliban-China axis in the context of security concerns in India and instability in the region. Presence of two key visitors – CIA Chief Bill Burns and Russian NSA Nikolay Patrushev -- in Delhi for discussions, a day Taliban anointed Sirajuddin Haqqani, head of the pro-ISI Haqqani network as its Interior minister reflect the serious concerns of the world over the track record of Taliban leaders.

The impact of Taliban rule on its own Afghan people is going to be adverse, going by what little has already been on display. Taliban regime would mean lesser international financial assistance which in turn will impact the marginalized more. Taliban regime in the past was known to have resulted in erosion of women’s rights and minority rights, weakening of democratic forces, and a severely brutal justice system.

The composition of the new government only reinforces the danger that many analysts feared when US troop withdrawal was being worked out. It was very clear Taliban to take charge, and this naturally heightened anxiety of the Afghan people and of the neighbouring countries

India too had invested heavily in Afghanistan and is worried about the safety of people of Indian origin living there. Most of whom have been safely evacuated. India built projects, including the already built Zaranj-Delaram Highway and Salma Dam, which are already under Taliban control. How the other ongoing projects would be affected remains to be seen. India is helping construction of check-dams, schools, and urban projects.