INDIAN ECONOMY: FIRST SIGNS OF POST-COVID RECOVERY?

We are living in extraordinary times. The Covid-19 novel coronavirus pandemic since its reported onset in March 2020 came as a sudden, silent war from within, disrupting both global and national economies in ways the post-reforms generation in India would have hardly seen or anticipated. Twenty months later, still haunting our memories are images of the Covid-induced abrupt lockdowns, the steep job-losses, the undeniable pathos of mass migrations of unorganised sector labour from cities to their villages, the incalculable ‘learning losses’ suffered by school children and higherlevel students amid a long shutdown of educational institutions mirroring the accentuating digital divide, the teeming thousands of people in front of hospitals in the wake of Covid, forcing governments to ramp up their medical infrastructure, and not to forget long queues for ‘Remdesivir’ and the tragic deaths of patients inside and outside hospitals when demand for medical oxygen outstripped supply. Yet, things can change. With the onset of the festive season in October-November 2021, for the first time since the pandemic broke out, led by the Reserve Bank of India, top policy experts managing the economy, banking and finance both within and outside government, have begun to flag the contours of an economic recovery with a growth road-map. This is notwithstanding India’s commitments at the latest Glasgow Conference of the Parties (COP26) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to reach “net-zero carbon emissions by 2070.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech has buoyed several developed world leaders, who are not yet fully prepared for ambitious targets in reducing their carbon emissions to save planet earth, as it has huge implications for their respective economies. ‘Coal’ was mentioned for the first time in COP26 document, with participating countries agreeing to a ‘Phasing Down’ of coal use instead of ‘Phase Out’, though no definite time-line was set for ending usage of coal-, as coal-fired thermal power stations are huge contributors to carbon gas emissions into the atmosphere-. India has said that renewable sources will make 50 per cent of its energy basket by year 2030, another ambitious target with deep domestic economic implications. The financial issues, however, US dollars 100 billion already committed by the rich industrial countries for mitigating climate change problems, were not resolved at COP26....